| "Raw materials only drive economies when they are relatively small economies that can hitch themselves on larger consumer spending economies that are booming" The United States' consumer-led economy isn't "booming". "The problem with global recessions is that demand for everything tanks and that includes raw materials." Have you checked the price of gold and oil recently? Those definitely _are_ booming :-) "The so called "voracious appetite" of China is only voracious because they use it to feed the voracious appetite of America for consumer goods. If Americans keep getting poorer that appetite of China will no longer be voracious and raw materials prices will keep falling." China's economy is expected to grow 8.3% this year, and raw materials prices are soaring. Believe me, I know :) The only thing that's falling is the consumer-sector of the economy. The US economy is bifrucating between core industries and the consumer sector. I think it's reasonable to expect that the consumer side of the US economy will contract dramatically from the 70% of economic activity that it currently represents -- it has to come more in-line with the rest of the world. It's a fallacy to think that the consumer has to drive economic growth -- that's been a phenomenon unique to the US since WWII. |