[snowwrestler]

IMO your balance should reflect your progress toward investing goals, not trying to outguess the market.

You know better than anyone about your own goals and progress, so you can make reliable decisions based on that information.

No one knows what the market is going to do next, and even if we assume a range of predictive accuracy, you're probably low in that range unless you spend a tremendous amount of time getting and analyzing economic data. So, you can't make reliable decisions based on that information.