[AndrewKemendo]

When I started my doolie (freshman) year at the USAF Academy, one of my classmates stated that his mission in life was to become an astronaut. He had been planning it out since he was like 10 years old.

He told us that this was his plan: First he had to get into the Academy, then major in engineering - ideally aeronautical engineering, then become a fighter pilot then become a test pilot and finally apply and become a NASA astronaut. I challenged him to be the first one in space, except I said that I would pay for a ride there as a tourist.

He ended up being the #1 grad from our class with his degree in aero engineering, went on to get his doctorate from Oxford and is now flying the B-1B. Still a few steps to go.

HOWEVER - there is almost no chance of him ever piloting a US spacecraft based largely on where the manned space program is. So while I am a little sad for him, given how hard he has been trying - it also makes our wager look more promising in my favor!

[DominikR]

Once travel into space is viable for average tourists (not only tourists willing to pay 100 million dollars) it'll probably also require more pilots than today, so I'll say that he still has a better chance being there before you.

[AndrewKemendo]

When I made the bet with my friends, predators/reapers were just starting to come online and it was clear to me that they would be the wave of the future and eventually pilots would be out of the loop.

We certainly aren't there yet but my long term bet is that humans will be pushed further out of the loop for all things transportation - space travel being one of the main ones I would expect to transition first as it's basically there today anyway.

[DominikR]

At some point in the future: Yes. But there's no way that this will start without at least human backup pilots on board.

And then there's the testing phase where many pilots will be needed to validate the safety of such flights.

Even when you look at various private space travel companies you'll find that they plan to use human pilots. (Virgin Galactic and others)

[snowwrestler]

> HOWEVER - there is almost no chance of him ever piloting a US spacecraft based largely on where the manned space program is.

I personally do not think this is true. There are at least 5 spacecraft under development right now that would need pilots: NASA Orion, Boeing CST, SpaceX Dragon, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic. Even if some of these fold, it still seems likely that at least 2-3 spacecraft would need crews at the same time. This is on top of ISS crew commitments.

I think we're in a lull right this minute, as we were after Apollo, but I think it's easy to mistake that for the future. If your friend will be still be in flying shape in 5-10-15 years, I predict there will be a number of opportunities to fly into space.

I do wonder about the future of non-pilot, non-engineer astronauts. Aside from the ISS, all the craft flying or under development would seem to demand a small crew of engineers. As opposed to the Space Shuttle program, which had enough seats for teachers, chemists, etc. to qualify and fly. For example a woman I knew in college flew on the Space Shuttle with a bachelor of geology and a few years teaching high school.

[grecy]

I assume SpaceX will be looking for pilots at some point, and they're always looking for people to send up to the IIS.

[kjs3]

Yeah...I've got a friend (ex F/A-18 driver) who had a slot the would have seen him fly on the Shuttle had it gone another 3 or 4 launches. He's pretty reconciled to never getting a shot at space unless it's as a civilian.