[geoffharcourt]

NYC has it now, but I think as generation/fuel prices rise (in the long-term) and utilities get slightly more sophisticated, we're going to see more on-demand pricing as utilities seek to apply the same price changes they pay generators for peak-demand supply to consumers.

In a situation where many people were doing load shifting, I think this could even benefit those who aren't doing load shifting themselves (by reducing peak demand across the network).

[danielweber]

For each person that load-shifts, it slightly reduces the payoff for the next person to load-shift.

In the UK, the peak demand is already in the evening[1], because solar has eaten the cheap lunch during the day (which it was supposed to do, but it means that each additional solar panel is going to have a harder job paying for itself). And the demand difference between low and high is about 30GW to 40GW.

[1] http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

[geoffharcourt]

Great point about marginal benefits of load shifting. I do think we're so far from that reduction being significant at this point that it's worth attempting.

I believe peak demand in most non-industrial areas is already evening, because residential areas tend to have less efficient energy use than commercial spaces due to density, and everyone is home at the same time, often doing energy intensive tasks such as cooking, using the A/C, opening the fridge. I heard from someone at a power company that advertisements during the Super Bowl are a major issue, because everyone opens their fridge and flushes the toilet at the same time, and power supply has to spike for 3 minutes and then return to normal.

[_delirium]

I think we're instead going to see more direct load-shifting agreements with end-users, not on-demand pricing. For example in Texas it's now common for utilities to give you a discount on your electric rates if you sign up for a program where you install a smart thermostat, and agree to let them slightly reduce your A/C power usage when the grid is nearing peak capacity. This lets them do exactly the peak load-shedding they want, controlled directly by the system operators, rather than having to design a system of price incentives, educate users about them, and hope the incentives produce the desired outcome.