[toomuchtodo]

There is no barrier to entry. Seriously. Mobile apps? Backend infrastructure? Trivial. I take that back; the biggest barrier to entry might be a massive trove of ride data for machine learning used to predict capacity requirements. In large metro areas, you might be able to get this data in an open format, obviating the need for you to gather the data yourself (the recently FOILd New York Cab Ride data comes to mind [1]).

Anyway! I see Uber going the way of webvan. Great proof of concept that VC money is going to burn through, followed up by some combination competitors, self-driving cars, and local/state government transportation agencies putting together federated/open APIs to perform the same services but in a regulated manner (or governments contracting with smaller players to perform the same services).

No amount of VC is going to remove a government's ability to regulate transportation (Montreal, Canada impounded 40 Uber drivers' vehicles the other day [2]). Then again, it shouldn't. Transportation should be regulated, but not for monopolistic reasons.

Anyone want to make a cheap long bet for funsies?

[1] http://www.andresmh.com/nyctaxitrips/

[2] http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-taxi-bureau-...

[eli]

I disagree. The network is the product, not the mobile app. Drivers won't switch to a new app that has no customers and customers won't want an app with no drivers.

[chasing]

Every driver I talk to has both User and Lyft installed. And I have have both Uber and Lyft installed. If one is surge pricing, I check the other.

[baddox]

Sure, you still probably need some capital to bootstrap the process. Guarantee an hourly rate to drivers for a short period of time, and offer really low prices for passengers.

[toomuchtodo]

Oh puh-lease! We hear this argument time and again, yet continue to hear anecdotes about drivers who drive for both Lyft and Uber.

There is zero friction to install a new app and accept fares via that app, except perhaps how many ridesharing apps you can run at once on your device for accepting passengers.

[simonw]

The challenge is reaching critical mass, where you have enough customers to keep the drivers busy and enough drivers to guarantee a quick pickup.

The linked article says Lyft now have an average pickup time in SF of 2.5 minutes. Good luck bootstrapping to that kind of performance with a brand new ride share company starting from scratch.

[TTPrograms]

You're competing on price, and drivers can use all services at the same time. If a driver gets more of the cut from another service they'll use that too - then they'll of course preference requests from the service that pays them more. It just snowballs - there isn't enough friction associated with switching services as a customer or as a driver to prevent competition on price point until the margins are razor, and then you're McDonalds. Which is fine, but you can't assume current margins.

[eli]

Sure, I also hear anecdotes about companies that try really hard but are unable to compete with Craigslist or eBay or other big companies with a strong two-sided network effect.

Based on what I've seen, Hailo tried to buy their way into this market, albeit with the twist of using licensed cabs. Seems like they had little trouble signing up drivers (who were predisposed to distrust the UberTAXI) but my assumption is that they gave up in North America because they couldn't afford to keep giving away the free rides and discounts needed to build up a customer base.

[hkmurakami]

Demand-side network is the most important. Supply side is relatively trivial compared to this. Look at LINE Taxi which launched in Japan using its demand side network via its messaging platform + instantly creating a huge supply side network via a partnership with existing taxi companies. You can buy supply side but can't buy demand side network.

Drivers using both Lyft and Uber is a perfect demonstration that they care most about the size and liquidity of the demand side of the market. They are using both in order to increase demand side liquidity from their perspective.

[lazaroclapp]

You can buy demand, though. "All rides free for first month" plus a ton of money in advertising will get you plenty of people switching if there is enough supply as well. It's just perhaps too expensive to buy demand when in the end people can switch back to Lyft or Uber just as easily.

[dnautics]

yet for some reason (and even with an app that has arguably superior features), sidecar just can't get it up.

[Crito]

Have they considered marketing? Because this is the first time I have ever heard of them.

[minthd]

Sure there are risks. But assuming that lyft-line or uber-pool succeed in filing rides with few people in return for lower costs they will have an advantage, because average occupancy and a reasonable ride length is highly dependent on amount/density of users.

And BTW, according to some uncofirmed twit[1], more than 50% of lyft rides in sf are done through lyft-line, which is a pretty new service.

To a lesser extent, user density is also related(in theory) to driver ride time, both in reducing wait time, and reducing time from call to passenger.

Also there might be a possibility they can subtly incentivize drivers to only drive for them by giving complying drivers a bit more work, or better work.

And as for your risks lists,you can paraphrase it as: the hand of god(government), a darpa scale technology(self driving cars), very well resourced competitor.

But every company is under risk from the first 2, even for businesses with a strong competitive advantage.

[1]https://twitter.com/DavidELPC/status/593832295968059392

[borscht]

Mobile apps? Backend infrastructure? Trivial.

Try building one.