[geebee]

Your analogy to estimating 23 across is pretty amusing. I like it a bit more than the claim that software estimates are like asking how long it will take to detect dark matter (another one I've heard), because honestly, I really shouldn't try to equate my work with something on that scale. That said, I actually think your analogy is, if anything, a bit too optimistic about estimates. In some ways, I'd stretch it to "you're good at puzzles. how long will it take to solve next week's puzzle". You know that puzzles are usually crosswords, sudokus, word scrambles, or chess problems, and you can usually get them, even the hard ones. There's variance, and sometimes you do get stumped, so it's a bit stressful, but at least you have some kind of prior history as a guide. But surprisingly often, it turns out to be something like encountering a rubik's cube for the first time. How long does it take to solve a rubik's cube? Well, once you know how to solve one, it takes less than 5 minutes. How long does it take to figure out how to solve one when you've never encountered it? Well, for some, never. For others, a month? For a few people, a day?

But the answer is, it will take me anywhere from 30 minutes to a month to tell you how long it will take me to solve this problem (over 1 month, I give up). Then, my answer will be: 5 minutes.