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by Crito 4094 days ago
Ultimately better education isn't going to be good enough. 100 workers replaced by a robot won't all get 100 jobs fixing or making that robot. Buggy-whip factory workers may have found new jobs in car factories, but it would be a mistake to assume that is how things will always play out.

Unless we want serious societal unrest, I am convinced that we need to get something like basic income off the ground sooner rather than later.
1 comments
trhway 4094 days ago
>100 workers replaced by a robot won't all get 100 jobs fixing or making that robot.

they will get jobs servicing each other as doctors, teachers, nurses, lawyers, soldiers, playwriters, government clerks/officers, etc... Basically actively employed in a re-distribution of the products made by the robots. Government for example one can see as an instance of such basic income program (it just comes with such strings attached as spending 9to5 in the office and regular kissing of the lower back of your superior)

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Crito 4094 days ago
> "they will get jobs servicing each other as doctors, teachers, nurses"

Are those robots going to create increased demand for doctors, teachers, and nurses, by virtue of automating away a welding job? Is your typical factory worker a viable doctor? If I lost my developer job, I don't think I would make a viable doctor, and I am a fairly smart university educated person. Not everybody is cut out for that kind of work; I sure aren't.

> "soldiers"

Military inefficiencies aside, don't be so sure they'll be safe from automation either. Furthermore, I shudder to think what future developments would necessitate even more soldiers.

> "playwrights"

The arts may flourish with some form of basic income in place, but without it, it is doubtful that it will become a viable career that can feed families for a significant portion of ex-factory workers.

> "government clerks"

Definitely not safe from automation. Computer automation alone, no robots required, eliminates many of those sort of jobs.

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JoeAltmaier 4094 days ago
That's optimistic! Why aren't they doing that now, then? Not the right training, or no job available? Why is that going to suddenly change when McD's starts automating the driveup window?
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trhway 4094 days ago
it wasn't optimism really :) People in general aren't happy for changes. I've been through a country size systemic change in economy - USSR 25 years ago - when suddenly many jobs disappeared (or salary for those jobs disappeared). In a bankrupt country of collapsed economy it wasn't pretty obviously. Yet, there opened new possibilities and people who was open to change, they adjusted. The need for a welder on Navy destroyer disappeared, yet a need for an individual entrepreneur in retail appeared, etc...

(The opening a this book describes it pretty artistically. It is a mental shift one is forced to make. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_%22%D0%9F%22 )

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georgemcbay 4094 days ago
The funny thing about your post is that the law profession is one of the hardest hit by automation over the past few years... not exactly a safe haven for people fleeing other fields.

Automation isn't just about factories full of robots, it is about software allowing 1 professional to do the job that 10-20 people used to do.

A field doesn't have to be fully automated before automation destroys the economic viability of the field for possible newcomers to it.

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