[taliesinb]

> The short term consequences of Greece crashing out of the Euro is going to be very painful for Greece.

For Greece? Greece will recover, and it's hard to do worse than it is currently doing. And as others say, a floating currency will help correct the imbalance of an exporter like Germany dominating the EU.

And bizarrely, I suspect investment will be quick to return if Greece is seen as being out from under its cloud. Investors seem to care less about previous behavior than about future prospects.

> It's a really bad strategy in that it doesn't prepare the Greek people for anything bad happening.

No... Germany stands to lose the most, because the likely eventual outcome is the collapse of the entire monetary union, and the wide markets that Germany has enjoyed.

[cmdkeen]

Oh it will be a problem for other countries. But there are short term consequences to a Grexit for Greece, the long term consequences may be good but immediately you'll be looking at; capital controls so people can't move their money around, Euros being forcibly converted to drachma, Greek banks going bust (combined with capital controls that isn't fun), a temporary inflation spike.

So short term Greece's social problems will be exacerbated - and that is the problem, arrogance suggests that there won't be a problem. The government may be looked back on a different light in 5-10 years time, but when there is renewed rioting in the streets in a month that isn't so good.

[holoto]

5-10 years? Not if you take a look at Argentina.

[holoto]

Germany successfully refinanced several German banks during the crisis and the current debt of Greece will not be payed fully back before 50 years. German EU contribution will be cut back. The impact to Germany will be minimal.

For Greece? Take a look at Argentina.

[taliesinb]

You may benefit from reading an expert on debt restructuring: http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/02/when-do-we-decide-that-europ...