[mbreese]

Or, 5 years isn't that long from now... for comparison (from CrunchBase) Dropbox was part of the Summer 2007 batch. So, in the context of this bet, they would have had to have had a valuation of 3B in 2012 (assuming the rest of the batch failed).

As of Jan 1, 2012, their most recent funding would have been a Series B round for $250M at ~ $4B. So, in this case, Sam would have won.

In my opinion, #3 is a little unfair, just because there are significantly more startups in these YC batches than in years past. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire W15 batch hit $3B in total valuation by the end of the year. There are roughly 100 in this batch, so they would only need an average of $30M in valuation for Sam to win #3.