[Agathos]

6 months sounds great. Since the recession is probably over (most recent GDP change was positive, although the NBER hasn't ruled yet), we should have recruiters kicking our doors down by April or May. And then we'll hire carpenters to replace the doors, and everyone wins.

Unfortunately, I think it's fairer to say that the first derivative of the unemployment rate is what actually lags by 6 months. April or May might be when it starts falling (fingers crossed), but it will have to fall for a couple of years before it reaches its pre-recession level. Every economist or seer I've heard of says it will still be around 9% in late 2010.

And that's six months if we're lucky. Consider the last one: recession ends in November 2001; unemployment doesn't really start dropping until early 2004!