[softdev12]

Whenever I see charts that focus on statistics like IPO valuations (e.g. #4. High-end IPO valuations are rising dramatically), it makes me think that people have forgotten the cost differential in a starting a software-based business now vs. 1995. When people talk of the few (<20) winners being multiple billions of dollars, they don't consider all the thousands upon thousands of tiny sub-five person startups that quickly try an idea and fail. So the total number of startups in the "universe" of startups is probably an order of magnitude greater today than in 1995 or 2000. It makes sense that more winners would come out of a much larger pool of companies.

I wish people would flip the argument and instead of saying tech bubble, start asking about the death rate of all the millions of apps, small shops, and side projects that are flooding the tech sector. I would like to see if this "fail" rate is too low (in the sense of not having enough winners) rather than a tech "bubble" being too high.