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by carsongross 4099 days ago
I think the strongest indication that there is a bubble is all the Smart People nervously chattering about there not being a bubble.
3 comments

Pretty much:

> Editor’s note: Bill Maris is president and managing partner at Google Ventures.

Hold onto your wallet. Wall Streeters are moving to tech[1], as are retirement fund managers[2]. Bubbles only work as long as the Smart Money can profit by selling to more fools.

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/25/technology/ruth-porat-goog...

[2] http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/23/daily-report-privat...

Silicon Valley is the new Wall Street
And before it was the new Wall Street in 2015, it was once before the new Wall Street circa 1999, the Frank Quattrone era.
Where do you think the money for VC funds historically came from? It's probably less Wall Street these days now that there is so much home-grown cash (Google Ventures being an example).
It's weird how this justification for "look a bubble!" has been consistently voted to the top of HN for its entire existence. Smart people have been chatting about their being or not being a bubble longer than Hacker News has been a thing.

> Is 'Web 2.0' Another Bubble? (2006)

[1] http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB116679843912957776

Just because something is a long-lasting bubble doesn't meant it's not a bubble. The housing bubble lasted what, the better part of two decades?
I would say for most areas it was less than half a decade. I can't think of many sections of an economy that can see greater than 20% year over year growth for more than 5 years without repercussions... Without corresponding growth in other areas to compensate, it's just not sustainable.
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” - Warren Buffett
So what do you do when people are gathering here to be fearful because others are being greedy?
"I don't invest in markets I don't understand." --Warren Buffet