[jpatokal]

Singapore is in for some seriously interesting times. Lee Kuan Yew did a masterful job of getting Singapore up to speed after independence, but like so many leaders over-identified with their nation, he overstayed his welcome. The Lee family's tentacles are firmly entrenched in the politics and businesses of Singapore, and while I hope they will have the common sense to tolerate the inevitable rise of the opposition -- which is already occurring, despite the steep odds stacked against them -- I'm afraid they're much more likely to lurch into outright dictatorship and fulfill Lee's own prediction:

"if there is a freak result [and the opposition wins], within two or three years, the army would have to come in and stop it” http://leewatch.info/quotes/

That date is not far off: Singapore's next general election must be held by January 2017, and the opposition is all but guaranteed to take a sizable portion of seats. Thanks to Singapore's first-past-the-post politics, if they grow from the current 40% to tip over 50%, they'll suddenly have an unassailable majority... and what then?

I'll give the final word to Lee's last standing arch-enemy, Chee Soon Juan:

“Why is he still so afraid? I honestly think that through the years he has accumulated enough skeletons in his closet that he knows that when he is gone, his son [Lee Hsien Loong, the current Prime Minister] and the generations after him will have a price to pay. If we had parliamentary debates where the opposition could pry and ask questions, I think he is actually afraid of something like that. ...

Mr Lee Kuan Yew fights all his demons within himself to try to shore up his reputation. In the process, however, he destroys the very legacy that he so desperately desires to establish.”

– Chee Soon Juan, Secretary-General of the Singapore Democratic Party

[skinnylatte]

Oh good god. As a Singaporean (who has worked in the opposition politics no less) I am sick and tired of Chee Soon Juan the megalomaniac who can't get basic economics right, being treated as our saviour. He is not.

[jpatokal]

I'm not quoting CHJ for his economics -- and I find it depressingly fascinating how well the Singaporean establishment has succeeded in demonizing the poor guy. (Have you read any of his books?)

[CyberDildonics]

Opposition politics in Singapore? Welcome to hell.

[skinnylatte]

At least I'm trying.

You guys don't make my job any easier by shitting on Singapore whenever you get the chance to, without even the least interest in learning the truth about it.

[CyberDildonics]

Without the least interest of learning about Singapore? When people who have lived in Singapore for almost a decade talk about the country (city) I would call that an informed opinion. Singaporeans love to compare Singapore to western countries, and in some limited but important respects Singapore is better (government financials and easy basic healthcare). When it comes to freedom and human right Singapore isn't up to the same (very low in my opinion) standards of the western countries it compares itself to. Maybe you can help change that. Most people's idea of freedom is what their country tells them they can do. Western countries are just further up on the wrong end of the bell curve.

[jpatokal]

The opinion above was formed by living in Singapore for ~8 years and continuing to take an active interest in its affairs for the next 5. You're welcome to disagree, but please tell me why then instead of just downvoting...

[crdoconnor]

I haven't lived here for as long as you, but I reached similar conclusions.

In addition, the idea that it was some sort of backwater place before LKY is something of a myth, along with the "no natural advantage" canard. Its strong economy grew in large part due to its strategically positioned port, which has existed since 1819. Can't really take credit for that.

That isn't to say that the country couldn't have been run into the ground in the 1960s, but they had a far larger head start than the ruling party likes to admit.

Interestingly, probably one of their most successful economic policies is one that is stridently ignored by the rest of the world:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_housing_in_Singapore

San Francisco in particular could afford to take a leaf out of this book.

[ersii]

Do not worry when you get down votes, especially not if you do a second look at your text in a calm state and you think that it contributes.

There are times when you unfortunately will get stuck with down votes - but most times, there will be plenty of people who will read your comment even if it's grayed out - and then vote it up.

[jpatokal]

Not so much worried as curious -- if I'm missing something, I'd genuinely like to know!

[skinnylatte]

I'm a Singaporean. I've worked in opposition politics. I'm going to be voting this year.

Here are a few thoughts:

- your understanding of the Lees in Singapore have no historical context. You cannot view his leadership in a vacuum. You cannot look at Singapore politics and say it needs a dash of 'Western liberalism & democracy' and proclaim Chee Soon Juan one of its administrators. LKY, and the Singapore of his time, was a product of the times. There is no other place like it.

- No other place like it: that at the point of independence, we could have become "either a Palestine or a Switzerland". He was prescient on that. Few other small states are sandwiched between two giants (India and China), few other small states are at the best spot of an important shipping route, and in that sense he — and Singapore — had a leg up

- The most successful opposition party in Singapore is the Worker's Party, a party which is nearly as old as the ruling party. They are just as organized, if not more, and they are gaining momentum and strength. Like Lee's party, they have no overwhelming 'ideology', it is about 'what works for Singapore'. Voters like that. Voters don't like SDP, and they don't like Chee. Singapore voters don't trust loose cannons, and I as someone who has been in the 'opposition' most of my life would rather vote for the PAP if it presented a better candidate than the opposition, which is usually the case.

- Odds are stacked against the opposition, that is true; but the odds are lowered now, Lee Hsien Loong is not his father and the media is not nearly as powerful now. I would say that other than the Worker's Party, every single opposition candidate and party is unelectable. God help us if they do. Personality cults and horrible politics. No ability to execute. Voters will not give them the benefit of the doubt; we do not see the 'ability to govern' in them, and that counts more than 'what party one is from'

- Throughout the land there is a profound sense of mourning. Even among the ones who have spent their lives on the fringes of Lee's Singapore. He was a lion, and Singapore will not be the same without him.

- It will not descend into chaos, it will not swing the popular vote for the opposition. My read is that the PAP will still be in majority power for then next two elections.

- In the meantime, the work that has to be done is about how we ensure that we are ready for a post-PAP future. The reality of post-LKY is upon us today, and that changes things. Rapid destruction of our institutions isn't the answer. The building of our capacity with our people, institutions and processes may be.

- In many ways, we are more ready than the world thinks for that future

- You'd think that well-educated well-travelled Singaporeans who have the world at their feet (can live and travel and work anywhere, pretty much) would immediately switch allegiances and vote in 'democratic figureheads'. We will not.

- That doesn't come from conservatism. It comes from a practical belief that these figureheads, like Chee, will be the end of Singapore as we know it — and that's not from believing the propaganda of the state. It comes from knowing that the Singapore model works, but needs tweaking; and that the situation you have described above isn't going to end well.

- After working on the ground for the opposition in the last elections, I believe Singapore voters are rational and no longer afraid.

- The odds are good, but the goods are odd. That's the Singaporean opposition right now.

[jpatokal]

Oh, I actually agree with most (but not all) of what you say. The Workers Party is the only viable opposition at the moment, but this is largely because they are very careful to "play by the rules" and not antagonize the Government too much.

What worries me, though, is that they are allowed to exist at the Government's forbearance. If they start to pose a real threat to the PAP's dominance, everything I've seen leads me to believe that the PAP will play dirty and strike them down as hard as is necessary. As said, I hope I'm wrong, but...

I'm also not sure I share your belief in Singapore voters being "no longer afraid". I've had Singaporeans tell me, entirely seriously, that they can't vote for the opposition because their votes are recorded and then they won't get government jobs.

[judyzhou]

You must have met ignorant ones amongst the population who have no inkling of how the system works here . I'm an opposition party campaigner in my 50s .. votes are secret... nobody will know. We have observers party from both sides throughout the whole process of balloting and counting till the results are announced and we can protest if there's peeking at particulars or foul play

[skinnylatte]

I think you'll see that this is not true anymore. 60% of Singapore did not vote for the opposition in 2011 because the majority of Singaporeans are afraid.

The PAP that you describe is no longer alive. It is one in which some of its top members are messaging me (a known volunteer for the opposition) and giggling with me over Amercians' perspectives of Singapore as seen on Hacker News.

[skinnylatte]

The other opposition parties are not viable because they are (1) terribly organized (2) run by personality cults --> both of these are traits which do not lend well to 'creating a better alternative'.

They can't even get a newsletter going without fighting about it -> level of disorganization and in-fighting.

[netvarun]

This is a really well-written comment. Thank you very much.

I'm Singaporean (though currently based in San Francisco) and identify myself as a supporter of the PAP.

I am currently traveling, and unfortunately got hold of LKY's passing a little late (though I had been following his health the past few days) and still feeling a little shell-shocked. I am personally very disappointed at all the comments on HN - most of them drowned out by expats and armchair political scientists.

Well if you had grown up in Singapore, read it's history, lived in HDB flats, recited the pledge and national anthem every goddamn day in school, played football at the void decks, served in the army, you will come to realize what a genius LKY was.

It's nice to see a message from a Singaporean from the other side.

[skinnylatte]

I'm also willing to wager that most of these armchair political scientists hate on Singapore because "it's not Asia" (meaning not poor enough). So much BS.

"I went to America once and here is everything I have to say about American politics and its people, and if you disagree you must be a brainwashed American."

Meh.

[nailer]

How does reciting a pledge and serving in an army prove to someone their leader's genius?

Something I frequently noticed working for a company with a Singaporean headquarters was confusion between authority and logic.

[netvarun]

Because both were very clever social engineering hacks that were brought in to unite a disparate, migrant, non-homogenous group of folks to work together for the benefit of all.

Those random references I made, including playing football in the void decks, are just part of the collective Singaporean experience that has made the country as it is. All were due to the various policies crafted by LKY and his team.

Look, by the time I cared about politics or even had voted for the first time, the GREAT LEADER had already retired and was a shadow of his former self.

Having criss-crossed the globe and now running a startup that has offices in three (very) different countries, I have come to appreciate and admire the man and his vision.

I am not trying to make the man a saint. He had his flaws and there are many policies I strongly disagree with. However at the end of the day, a man's genius is measured by the number of goals he scored, subtracting off his own-goals. And his score runs pretty high.

Just to make myself clear, it's not reverence. It's respect.

[judyzhou]

Because given the poor.circumstamces we've succeeded in becoming an economic miracle where most others have failed..and we've been able to protect our turf through diplomacy and deterance without having to fight a single war. For every foreign critic I meet I have only one advice... look at your own country and their leaders before u belittle

[netvarun]

I downvoted you because you cherrypicked a quote from LKY without any context and of all people, you had to quote Chee Soon Juan - that quite shows that you don't have ground reality or an understanding of Singaporean politics.

[Source: I'm Singaporean]

[nailer]

You haven't provided any supporting arguments. Perhaps you can tell us what the missing context is, or why using that quote means he has no understanding?

[skinnylatte]

Using that quote means he has no understanding because Chee Soon Juan isn't what the OP portrays him to be, he isn't even what his own quote says he is.

It's completely factually wrong and there are few Singaporeans (even the ones in Chee's own party) who would give that quote (and the man who said it) any legitimacy whatsoever.

[raincom]

I am okay with a benevolent dictator. As Arrow and Sen showed that we can't talk about agrregate social interest or about the public will, it is better to have a LKY to ramp up a country.

Somehow, LKY planted all his family members in powerful roles of the government and the government run companies.

Government linked corporations (GLC) controll 60 percent of the singapore Economy. Tamasek holdings is one such. The CEO of Tamasek is the wife of the current prime minister, who is the son of LKY.

Another benevolent dictator in the making? Maybe, the elections can tell.

My friend's brother went to Singapore from India as an electrician in 2010. He was making S$550 per month, and was living in a shack somewhere in Singapore. Cheap labor imported from Malaysia, Indian, China, Thai, Burma, Phils help the government linked companies make profits. And this explains why Singapore does not have minimum wage.