[nl]

Assuming this theory is wrong (and I assume it is) it is interesting to consider why it has become so popular.

Firstly, there is no compelling counter-theory. The consensus view (the plane turned off its flight path for an unknown reason, flew in a mostly unknown direction for an unknown period of time and then crashed somewhere in the Indian ocean) has so many thing that are unknown that any theory offering certainty is attractive.

Secondly, the "Russians stole the plane because of something to do with some Ukrainians" fits the current political narrative very well. Confirmation bias means people are likely consider it even when they probably shouldn't.

Thirdly... maybe it true. Anyone have a better theory? (See how easy it is?)

[powertower]

Theory A) Putin had 3 Russian Spetsnaz hijack the plane, kill all the passengers on board, and navigated to an abandoned space launch and landing facility, so in a year or two it could be loaded up with explosives and used in a first-strike terrorist attack against the USA.

Theory B) Plane crashed at unexpected location in ocean that covers 3/4 of earth surface.

I know which one the media outlets that are booking this guy are going to be pushing come Monday. It has all the right juicy bits in it. And the other one is kind of bland.

[dingaling]

Given that used 777-200s are fairly cheap and common on the leasing market, Theory A key seems an utterly Bond Villanesque way of obtaining an airframe.

You'd have to reprogram its transponder and slap-on a coat of paint anyhow, so why not just hire one from ILFC through a couple of proxy companies? Much easier and less risky. Operate it on routine 'cargo' services until needed...

[atroyn]

I like to think it's become popular because people have a hard time accepting that we can just 'lose' a plane in our era.

The incident runs counter to the carefully managed, or at least well understood framing that people apply to the world at large through their lived experience, so seeking a 'human' explanation is somehow more comforting.

[meric]

The frame: There's an app to find your lost $1000 iphone, how can you lose a $100m plane?

[atroyn]

Exactly. Even people who fly a lot (like me) are in the confines of what feels like a very controlled system. If I can get three connecting flights across two continents with only two hours of layover, how can we just lose a plane?

It's easy to forget the world is really big, and that technology does break.