[PakG1]

We don't yet have enough data to say if he's correct. I would posit that the fact that China is where it is today is due to his Afternote C, not his Bullet Point 3. There are massive structural risks inside of China that are difficult to see in the media, risks that are more difficult to have in a democratic system that tries to guarantee freedoms.

These are cracks in China's economic foundation that a lot of hot money foreign investment has been able to cover up over the past couple of decades. Risks due to population migration problems due to the hukou system, environmental problems stemming from short-sighted industrial investments, government corruption that grew and grew due to lack of separated oversight and his Bullet Points 4 and 5 (which only recently seems to be seriously considered an existential risk to the government's existence; but again, time will tell if this is for real), and more. The level of control of the government over the economy also goes against the tenets of free markets (although I suppose you can then get into an argument as to whether it's possible to have capitalism without free markets).

I'm not saying that his Bullet Point 3 is wrong. I'm saying that it's too soon to call China a reliable data point for making any long-term overarching claims.

edit: clarification