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by taeric
4130 days ago
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So it does sound like we disagree some. If the host picks randomly and does not reveal, it makes no difference. If the host picks randomly, revels, and you are still in the game. It should make a difference. (After all, you now know more than you did before your first pick. Namely, that a 1/2 chance after a 1/3 exclusion did not remove the winning door.) Will try and run a simulation tonight or this weekend. |
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Specifically, if you have a 50% chance of winning on swap, you have a 50% chance of losing by not swapping. So, yeah, by the time you get to the swap, no matter what, you are at a 50% chance of winning. Swap or not.