[coralreef]

I think the data shows forced ideas are less likely to succeed. The reason is you are less likely to understand the problem (you may or may not have lived it). You are also thus less likely to have any domain advantage over anyone else, or knowledge of any secrets. It may also affect your conviction; you may be less likely to believe in your idea when times get tough, because it is not deeply rooted in your experiences.

[dereking]

I do very much agree with "you are less likely to understand the problem". That being said however, the contrary also appears true - I doubt the founders of Uber knew much about the taxi industry for example, but yes, they experienced the problem.

"... or knowledge of any secrets"

Did you read Zero to One? :)

"you may be less likely to believe in your idea when times get tough, because it is not deeply rooted in your experiences."

This is by far the point that resonates most with me from all the comments. Fair dos - point taken.

[coralreef]

Everyone on HN has read Zero to One :D

[dereking]

tru dat :)

[js4]

The MSFT crew didn't set out to make windows, they took advantage of a market opportunity by buying DOS from one guy and selling it to another.

Billions of dollars in value is made by people who analyze markets looking for an angle.

[coralreef]

No doubt, but how they were able to see the opportunity for an operating system stemmed from their work with the altair. They found these opportunities because they loved computers. They didn't say, "this looks like a promising space", and then proceeded to learn about programming. They were already at the forefront of a rapidly changing industry.

[dereking]

Good point - my same process of thought https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9080740