[grapeshot]

There are still a few other things that will limit the life of modern computers.

1. That waxy thermal pad material certainly dries out and becomes ineffective in less than 10 years.

2. Power supplies still have large electrolytic capacitors right next to heatsinks

3. BGA parts with lead-free solder are still going to have a limited amount of thermal cycles they can withstand before the solder balls become brittle.

4. I notice an increasing use of conductive glue to attach flat flex cables in computer parts, especially ultrabooks, and this also has a limited number of thermal cycles before it starts to degrade. (Anyone who bought a Samsung TV between 2005 and 2008 might already be aware of this.) This is probably the worst issue since it isn't going to be fixable for a hobbyist.

Also, I wouldn't even guarantee that firmware in Flash that isn't rewritten often will last 10 years. There are a lot of dead Nintendo Wiis already due to bad blocks in the flash.

I currently own a 30 year old PC-XT and a 40 year old stereo receiver, but they didn't make it to that age without maintenance and replaced components. I'm afraid that in 30 years many of today's devices will have failed in ways that are impossible to get at or repair.