If you're willing to lose $100k, that's your risk tolerance. Some of the bets you can make with that $100k are much stupider than others, based on expected value. If you just want the thrill of high variance, buy lottery tickets.
To put it another way: VCs take risks too, but they spend all their professional efforts trying to figure out which risks are worth it. If you can get the same terms that they get, then you at least have some validation that the terms aren't deliberately screwing you. Forgone salary is just dollars, same as the money the VCs put in, and just as useful to the company. If you're going to forgo $250k in salary over five years, you should expect to end up with equity equivalent to somebody who put that in as cash over the same time period. If you end up with less equity, or less senior equity, you're probably getting screwed.
The risk is high for a very low return. A best case of $20k? That difference is very small for a very large risk, and the pay cut from an established company it obviously not worth it.
If you're willing to lose $100k, that's your risk tolerance. Some of the bets you can make with that $100k are much stupider than others, based on expected value. If you just want the thrill of high variance, buy lottery tickets.
To put it another way: VCs take risks too, but they spend all their professional efforts trying to figure out which risks are worth it. If you can get the same terms that they get, then you at least have some validation that the terms aren't deliberately screwing you. Forgone salary is just dollars, same as the money the VCs put in, and just as useful to the company. If you're going to forgo $250k in salary over five years, you should expect to end up with equity equivalent to somebody who put that in as cash over the same time period. If you end up with less equity, or less senior equity, you're probably getting screwed.