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by ArkyBeagle
4151 days ago
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The trend of compounded growth since 1820 has been 4%, really until some time from the 1990s to now. Many suspect the natural rate of growth still to be 4% but somehow, our policy or behavior suppresses it. The transition to the lower rate of growth is a lot covered by Tyler Cowen under the rubric " The Great Stagnation". We're roughly 2096 ( exp(1.04,195) ) times wealthier on aggregate than in 1820. This happens very slowly. Since 1960, the ratio is 8.6:1 - you and I are 8.6 times as wealthy as the people most like us from 1960. Megan McArdle talks about the "Little House On The Prairie" Ingalls family not being able to afford a modest tin cup for the third daughter for a long time - apparently something noted in the books. Yet they were "middle class"
by the standards of the times. |
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