[happyscrappy]

"Europe will pull out of this, but maybe not for a year or two, at which time the US might be heading back into a recession, which might pull Europe along with it."

What is your reasoning for the US going back into recession?

[pdecker]

well, I think right now the US is in the middle of a short term debt cycle, where assets are going to return around 3% and things seem somewhat quiet...it reminds me of the late 90s, just before the dotcom boom...a quiet few years, however, things never stay this way...we have seen an inflation of the stock market, but most American's aren't feeling that...credit growth has been somewhat tepid, and what I think is going to happen is we are going to get into something similiar to another "dotcom" boom, with a ton of IPOs, money flooding into our stock market from all over the world as investor chase returns, the stock market will probably go higher in 2015, and people will eventually feel really good about the economy, and they will push up credit levels. We're not seeing any growth in wages, so eventually the credit levels will get too steep and defaults will occur, and the cycle will turn down.

That is just the nature of the beast....things go up and then they come right back down. Its bound to happen sooner or later, and I think maybe in 2016-2017.

But I'm most likely 100% wrong...most economic forecasts are...what do you think?