[keenerd]

Um, no. I did not say anything like that.

But go ahead and rigorously demonstrate any non-zero existence for "A truthful bear saw a fox, though the thief is a raccoon" with the current parameters of the model. It is not a possibility, it is nonsense.

Please prove the brute-force simulation fails to converge on the correct answer. It is figuratively running a million parallel universes and recording what happened. In no legitimate universe does the combination "bear was not mistaken, bear saw fox, thief was raccoon" ever occur.

[totallymike]

Per the discussion in the scenario, "bear was not mistaken," and "bear was truthful" are different things. One implies a bear with poor eyesight; the other implies a bear intentionally misrepresenting the facts.

Given the story, the bear mistook a raccoon for a fox 20% of the time, which is very different from being untruthful.