[thurstont]

Great question - as this thread showed it's a 2x2

Possible outcomes:

1. The models predicted survival, and the business survived 2. Predicted survival, but the business failed 3. Predicted failure, but the business survived, 4. Predicted failure, and the business failed

Here's how our results stacked up: #1. 69% of observations (it wobbles around 66%, but was 69% in the last update) #2. 31% of observations (notice #1 + #2 = 100%. Out of 100% of the times we predicted survival, we were right 69% and wrong 31%) #3. 12% #4. 88% (again, #3 + #4 = 100%. Out of all the times we predicted failure, we were right 88% of the time and wrong 12%).

Again, there's more luck when you predict failure, so it's really around 66% for both positives and negatives when you dig deeper into the stats.