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by Hasu
4155 days ago
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What? A coin flip would still be 50% accurate. If 10% of startups succeed, and we say that heads is "succeed" and tails is "fail": 5% of startups will be predicted to succeed and will succeed (correct prediction) 5% of startups will be predicted to fail and will succeed (false prediction) 45% of startups will be predicted to succeed and will fail(false prediction) 45% of startups will be predicted to fail and will fail (true prediction) 50% true predictions, 50% false predictions. A coin flip is always 50% accurate. |
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