[brudgers]

So let's say you take the job for 80-90k for a salary of 30k below market. In exchange you get 2% equity.

Suppose there's a 5% chance of a $50 million dollar exit after five years and there's a 2:1 dilution risk of 50% and a bad-will at liquidation risk of 20%.

The 2% of a $50 million exit is $1 million. The 2:1 dilution risk at 50% reduces that to $750k. The bad-will at liquidation risk reduces the value to $660k. The 5% chance of such a payout makes the value of the equity $33k.

So on those optimistic assumptions, there's $3k of upside in taking the deal. Continual reassessment is necessary to make sure that continuing with the company is a good investment. Odds are that the odds of a big exit will go down over time and that dilution and bad-will will go up.

Finally, if you're arguing for more do you really want to work somewhere that requires constantly convincing people of your worth? Investing in the current opportunity limits your ability to invest energy in something better (in fairness it also limits your ability to invest in something worse).

If you're already willing to walk out the door for another job, why fool around with something that offers very marginal return? Go into business with people who share some of your interest in your getting rich.