| What is true is if you chased the mobile game craze there was a small window where little indie games had traction. A well developed indie game (I would call it an exception at this point) can still gain traction in today's app stores but it is rare. It is true that with the increased supply of games three things have happened. First, the amount of terrible games one must slog through to find a gem has increased. Second the number of gems has also increased which in turn keeps raising the bar of what a "gem" is. Third a race to the bottom began and player's expectations changed and what they are willing to pay with it. The real culprit and difference than the days or yore or even just five years ago is exposure and marketing costs. I run a small indie studio and our game Pit of War[1] is a very niche game (a PvP, character building, gladiatorial strategy game with text and still images. You don't get much more niche than that!) and we've found great success by managing our resources well and not chasing the latest craze be it flash, facebook, mobile, or what have you. We chose to keep the game on the web and keep full control over it instead of having to pass a judgment committee, or handing over 30% of our revenue to some platform. I found a niche that I enjoyed and had little competition and then built a game and a community around it. That last part is critical these days. I'm sure many of you have heard about "A 1000 true fans"[2], and it very much applies here. If you are using a F2P business model it is your bread and butter. In 2010-2012 everything was awesome and then something happened in late 2012, early 2013. The user acquisition costs skyrocketed. In the last five years I've seen CPA costs increase 300%-600%. I spent time in Japan and knew some people at an ad agency there that mainly caters to mobile game companies and the CPA on those networks was averaging 700-800 yen (about $7-$8), with peak prices hitting 5,000 yen ($50) when Japanese companies paid out the yearly bonuses to their employees. Five years earlier CPAs were around $1.50 and less. The price increases on their networks have mainly been fueled by four or five companies like Supercell, GREE, DeNA etc. This is where the fairytale ended for a lot of indies and small studios hoping to make a living. It is a rare game that can pay those kinds of marketing costs and remain profitable. My recommendation to anyone looking to get into indie game development would be to find a niche you enjoy and be the best in it. Build a community around it. Learn how to utilize an ethical F2P business model and last but certainly not least, have fun. [1] If you are curious about what can be accomplished with a web based niche game you can check it out here: http://www.pitofwar.com [2] http://kk.org/thetechnium/2008/03/1000-true-fans/ |