[qnr]

> most coins (no reference, just surmising) are in exchanges rather than wallets owned by the end user.

Are you saying there are 7+ million BTC stored on exchanges? I disagree based on two data points: Bistamp's reserves were 180K in November 2013 and MtGox's were 850K (with 650K of them missing) at the time of its death.

Even if you add BTC-E, Chinese exchanges, Coinbase and LocalBitcoins, it most likely won't exceed 2-3 million which means the remaining 80% is owned by end users directly.

[bdcravens]

Honestly, I don't know. I'm thinking mostly of "active" coins, not those that haven't moved in years. I personally think that Satoshi's coins will never move.

So even if it's a minority at 20%, that's a pretty substantial number, and I can't imagine why it won't grow. Bitcoin's success depends on mass adoption, and I can't imagine a scenario where Jane Public would rather learn the technical skills to secure a local wallet versus trusting a company like Coinbase or Circle.