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by Machow
4190 days ago
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I think the algorithm he is suggesting is.. 1. Get empirical probability vote is within 2 million from previous N elections. (so, 1 if it is within 2 mill, and 0 of not, then average). Use it as p(vote is within 2 million).
2. Assume that if a vote is within 2 million, then the exact number of votes is uniform between 0 and 2 million. Then, the probability of a tie, given that the vote is within 2 million is p(vote within w million) / 2 million. |
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