[XorNot]

This applies just as aptly to peoples perception of government or corporate behavior as it does to anything else. IMO the ability to rationally analyze or predict outcomes basically goes away once people forget that the fundamental unit of cognition and influence on this planet is and remains the human mind, not the corporation, agency or government - things which are emergent phenomenons of many individuals interacting.

I.e. it is a mistake to think that 'intelligence agencies' could not make this same analysis if you can.