It is getting much closer to falling under the Chinese sphere of influence as American military dominance in the Pacific wanes and China's increases. I expect it to be gradually swallowed up Hong Kong style in the next couple of decades.
America's 'promise' to protect it will likely be quietly withdrawn.
China's bullying of their neighbors has been the best thing for American dominance in the region since winning the Spanish American war. Even Vietnam likes them now. .
Vietnam has liked America more for decades. However, being liked more by Vietnam does not translate to military dominance over the Pacific.
Chinese fleet is increasing in size and the US pacific fleet is shrinking.
Also: what did the US have to say about China claiming most of the South China sea as its own? Virtually nothing. That wouldn't have been the case even a decade ago.
China still doesn't have much of a navy, they definitely don't have a blue seas navy yet anywhere compared to the USA or even the Japanese sdf. Ya, the us is going from 100 to 90 while china is going from 1 to 2.
And that's not even the point: they don't want to go against china directly, there is too much integration. But they definitely want to sell some boats to Vietnam. So the next time china wants to go at it with Vietnam, they will be on a more equal footing.
>And that's not even the point: they don't want to go against china directly, there is too much integration.
Yet another reason why China's regional dominance is increasing and the US is shrinking. It's not just their navy. The US is too inextricably tied to the Chinese economy.
In the last 5 years it's been looking like the US would lose out more if China pulled the trading plug (suddenly cut off exports / let the yuan appreciate) than China would.
Cut off Chinese exports now and the US would suffer a wave of cost push inflation like it did in the 70s with the oil shock. It would not be pleasant. US military planner are aware of this and restrict their chest thumping accordingly.