[glurgh]

You're not really stacking your long-run odds any more than you're stacking your odds by playing the lottery a lot. The odds are stacked in favour of anyone who submits a lot and submits early rather than in favour of someone who submits well.

[dang]

I'm not sure what you mean by submitting "early", or what experience you're drawing on here (your account has submitted zero stories!), but am pretty sure that the odds favour a user who submits a lot that is good [1] and that the latter is where the emphasis should be. We're also working on systems to amplify this effect, so it is going to get more true with time. The point as far as karma goes is not to be attached to any one post, but rather to play for the long run.

1. What counts as good on HN: stories of intellectual substance that many good hackers would find interesting.

[glurgh]

I guess I just found the response "submit more, it evens out in the end" a bit glib (as is, 'your account has submitted zero stories'). I do have some experience submitting stories as well as plenty of just reading and commenting on the site. It seems to me the current system amplifies negative tendencies like being 'first to post' or reposting variants of the same story.

I'm perfectly happy to take your word that you're working on something better.