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by jim_greco 4216 days ago
It's conveinent to see things through western or SV capitalism eyes, but Japan's 'malaise' is all about demographics and a 20 year inept Government response to deflation. If you look at metrics like GDP per working age adult, household net worth, etc then it's a very different story.
2 comments

Japan hasn't suffered any meaningful deflation in the last 25 years. In fact, they've suffered immense inflation, as have most major economies. That's why they have among the highest costs of living on earth, their consumer goods are expensive, and almost everything in Tokyo costs a fortune.

Run 2% deflation against 25 years, and tell me consumer goods in Japan should cost what they do.

The only thing Japan suffered, was the bursting of a real estate bubble. Following that, they accumulated insane sums of debt trying to fake continued prosperity and avoid the standard of living drop that was inevitable (and is now arriving anyway). Asset prices going down is not inherently deflation, in the case of Japan it was fake wealth that never should have existed in the first place.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/inflation-cpi

Set the start date to 1990. Inflation has never risen above 4%, and most of the time hovers around 2%, which is considered normal and hardly "immense". You even see deflation at a few points, which is almost unheard of in developed economies and always considered quite bad.

I've traveled to Japan a few times, and noticed that it is a bit cheaper to go now than before. Definitely not expensive outside of hotels and shinkansen tickets.

> Japan's 'malaise' is all about demographics and a 20 year inept Government response to deflation.

Why do you think the demographic issue exists? Low birth rates are due to gender inequality and long working hours, both of which are endemic in the Sinosphere. And the government's failure (which goes far beyond not tackling deflation) is due to its cozy relationships with incumbent firms - a factor that makes it very difficult for creative destruction to occur.

By that logic, Western europe's low birth rates are due to ... ding ding ding! gender inequality and long working hours. Pah.
Good point. Without looking anything up, I'm pretty sure the demographic difference is due to differences in immigration policy, correct?
Did you even bother to look at the statistics before making such an ignorant comment? The fertility rates in countries like Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore are much lower than in Western Europe.
That's false. Much of Europe is in the same exact demographic spiral. Europe as an overall, is in worse shape than is Asia. Most of the countries making up the bottom of the low fertility club, are in Europe.

Births per 1,000 people

Japan: 8.07; Singapore: 8.10; Germany: 8.42; Slovenia: 8.54; Taiwan: 8.55; Austria: 8.76; Greece: 8.80; Italy: 8.84; Bulgaria: 8.92; Hungary: 9.26; Romania: 9.27; Hong Kong: 9.38; Portugal: 9.42; Poland: 9.77; Czech: 9.79; Spain 9.88

Without immigration Europe would have already experienced a demographic collapse.

A society needs on average a fertility rate of 2.1 children born per female.

My country (Austria) has a fertility rate of 1.44, Germany even has a fertility rate of 1.38. Without immigration the fertility rate would be at 0.9 - 1.1.

This would be equal to or lower than the worst fertility rates the Russians experienced after the fall of the Soviet Union (1.1), when even life expectancy fell by 10 years on average.

Today with much better socioeconomic conditions Russias fertility rate has risen again to 1.8. That should give a clear indication of how important socioeconomic conditions are for reproduction.

It isn't due to gender inequality, it is due to health care, education, and economic reasons.