[dllthomas]

It matters why the host picked the goat. (Or, more precisely, what the odds were of him doing otherwise when he picked). That we're looking at a goat doesn't tell us everything.

Again, write the simulation. Either the switch strategy will win 2/3 of the time or 1/2 of the time, depending on how you write Monty. Only one of those approaches matches the results we saw IRL - Monty never revealed the car (so far as I'm aware) - but either is consistent with many phrasings of the question, and OP correctly specified the other case above.

[skizm]

you keep telling me to write a simulation. It won't matter. the code is the same for both questions since they are asking the same thing.

[dllthomas]

That's not true, but we'll pick it up under the code jayvanguard supplied.