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by throwaway283719
4222 days ago
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No. In the first case, the fact that the host shows you a goat has not put you in any new state of the world (the host was going to show you a goat regardless of what happened). In the second case, you now know that you are not in one of the states of the world where the host accidentally opened a door that had a car behind it. They could have opened a door with a car, but they didn't. That gives you some information - it stands to reason that since they didn't open a door with a car, it was probably a bit more likely that they would pick a door with a goat, which makes it more likely that there are two goats than that there is one car and one goat, which is equivalent to saying that it's a bit more likely that you have already chosen the car. |
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