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by badgersandjam 4230 days ago
There's a pretty big assumption in there. That the comet is approaching earth and not going to miss it by half a parsec or that the comet is infact a bit of dirt on the lens of the telescope...

All of which need testing first before you start waving your hands around and start saying "WE'RE GOING TO FUCKING DIE - RUN!"
1 comments
Gravityloss 4230 days ago
We operate in an uncertain world. In many cases it is hard to obtain 99.999% certainties, and we must act with less certainty.

Not acting is a choice as well, and everyone bears the responsibility for that too.

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badgersandjam 4230 days ago
Problem is we have about 50% certainty...
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Gravityloss 4230 days ago
So, if we continue the thought experiment, and say thousands of people have been making observations of the comet for five years and have come to roughly 50% impact probability estimate, with multiple independent methods. And that impact would likely kill maybe a billion people.

And you say it is unacceptable for them to advocate doing anything?

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risks/a410777.html

Current impact risks overview is here. 50% chance of a large object would certainly be unprecedented.

http://arxiv.org/pdf/0804.1126.pdf

Now, replace the comet watchers with paleoclimate researchers finding out what happened when the planet last time crossed 450 PPM (the other way around).

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badgersandjam 4230 days ago
That's not what I'm saying. I can't make it much clearer than:

a) suddenly out of the blue, a Ford Transit mutates into a toaster.

b) someone is "pretty sure it is related to the impending comet impact".

c) Everyone goes YAY SCIENCE!!!

Sorry but derision is the only thing left. It's not science, it's religion.

a) suddenly out of the blue someone delivers a load of fish.

b) Some guy doesn't notice this and goes "pretty fucking sweet; I'm totally wasted on mushrooms and I reckon that bearded dude over there turned that loaf of bread into all those fish. Damn I've got the munchies."

c) HE'S THE FUCKING MESSIAH.

There is no causality chain established other than a hunch.

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Gravityloss 4230 days ago
Ok, I thought you categorically opposed scientists being activists.

I do agree that some things are perhaps too easily reported or assumed to be caused by climate change when there is not much evidence to support that (yet).

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pyre 4230 days ago
Inaction is always easier than action, so which way do you think that people will choose?

If we do spend the time, money, and effort to do things like reduce emissions, will we be worse off than we were? Would it not make more sense to use renewable energy resources, and save up the 'easy' sources of energy (oil, coal, etc) for other applications?

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badgersandjam 4230 days ago
Entirely agree!

But blaming everything on climate suddenly isn't the right answer. Perhaps someone lost a ship load of PCP in the sea and they just snuffed it. And they're trying to hide that.

Another hypothesis that could be tested rather than "fuck blame it on climate so we can get some funding and get some nice new Herman Miller chairs and a new MacBook each"

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