[AnimalMuppet]

There seems to be this background idea here that "If you can't disprove it, that means it's plausible," which is totally mistaken. Not every idea that we can't disprove is worth seriously considering.

Let me put it this way. If a fundamentalist Christian made the same kind of arguments, and said "therefore God probably exists", would you believe that it really was probable? Most likely you'd say "I'm pretty sure that God doesn't exist, even if I can't prove it, and I'm not going to change my view of the probability just because this person says something that sounds good." But if you think that's a reasonable response, why is not the same approach reasonable in response to this "the universe is probably a simulation" stuff?