[JumpCrisscross]

> With the bill’s defeat, the Senate faces a hard deadline for new legislation since the legal basis for the phone records program, a provision of the Patriot Act, expires in June. After that, when the 90-day orders to phone companies requiring them to turn over their customers’ records expire, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court would be unable to issue a new round of orders.

Given the "rifts between the [GOP's] interventionist and more libertarian-leaning wings," what are the probable endgames? Specifically, what are the odds of–and promoting factors for–an obstructionist minority flipping over the table in June?

[Hario]

D's lost 8, R's gained 8 in the latest election.

Assuming no new R's vote right, that gets us to a vote of 50 / 50, with Biden getting the deciding vote. However, in the modern filibustering Senate, 41 Senators can kill any bill.

So in theory, if everyone who voted for the bill hangs tight, they could destroy any new legislation, including PATRIOT ACT reauthorization.

However, I'd be quite surprised if neither of these things happen: 1. McConnell decides the filibuster no longer works for him, so he kills it. 2. Obama puts remarkable pressure on fellow D's and they buckle.

But theoretically, we have all the votes we need. And if 1 new R senator joins the anti-NSA caucus (and all the D Senators hang tight, and all the D senators are good on the issue), they wouldn't even be a minority -- they'd have 51 votes.

Hope that makes sense.

[protomyth]

I'm away from my lists, but some of the new R Senators will vote anti-NSA with Paul / Cruz. I would imagine the Patriot Act reauthorization might be problematic.

[_delirium]

This article characterizes the new R senators as belonging more to the establishment wing of the party, in part because the party was fairly successful in getting its preferred candidates through the primaries, avoiding some of the surprises that characterized 2010/2012: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/16/us/new-senators-tilt-gop-b...

Some do have more track record in that regard than others though, so it might be that they won't all side with the national-security conservatives.

[protomyth]

4 were swept into the House in the wave that brought the R majority and their voting record isn't exactly all happy happy with the establishment. Joni Ernst is not establishment. I am not sure about the other 2.

There were a lot a jockeying and some losses from the outsiders, but remember that Cantor got beat in the primary.