[hawkice]

Grandparent mentions "greater fool theory", which is perhaps a clearer counterpoint to your (quite correct) point.

It's also worth saying that upside risk is typically coupled with downside risk (which is something you're hinting at) -- the wider market has the probability of failure built into its current pricing. So, somewhat perversely, even if you don't think it'll have a billion dollar valuation with probability exceeding that of the market, it can become a better investment simply by increasing the probability of > $0 outcomes (by reducing that downside risk). Demonstrating that with a pivot seems like actually good evidence.

I wouldn't make the same investment, but there are a couple angles to discuss here.