[001sky]

"People infected with Ebola cannot spread the disease until they begin to display symptoms, and it cannot be spread through the air. As people become sicker, the viral load in the body builds, and they become more and more contagious."

This is sort of misleading in this context, unfortunately. The WHO considers (sustained presence) within 1 meter of EBV carrier to be ~physical exposure. The young doctor appears to have been on a NYC subway within 12 hours of having a fever of 103. Creating a potential group of exposures that may be un-traceable.

Maybe someone can correct me if I'm wrong. But this would be highly unfortunate if these reports are correct. Presumably the uber driver is also in this group now, but records should be able to provide some data on that one much easier.

[wfjackson]

Many signs point to the viral load not being highly infectious at the beginning. Duncan was sent back to his home by the hospital and lived with his fiance who was taking care of him for two days before being readmitted. She wore no PPE yet appears to be uninfected. If sitting next to someone infected on a bus or subway is enough to pass it on, there would be a million cases in West Africa by now, not 10K. It appears to be primarily caregivers at the later stages of the disease, and the custom of kissing corpses that appear to be spreading the disease because the viral load is extreme at that stage. This doesn't mean that the potential contacts of this person should not be traced or that it was good idea for him to go bowling, but the sky isn't falling just yet.

[kamaal]

Ebola can spread only after a person begins to show symptoms. And that takes ~21 days. Or putting it straight, for it to spread from one person to another it would take 21 days of period in between getting infected and spreading it to others.

Though the growth of number of patients with Ebola is definitely exponential. Please note it takes 21 days for the each multiplication to happen. It started in March and has been been spreading since, 10K is pretty large for a 7 month period.

>>but the sky isn't falling just yet.

In things like this you won't know when the sky will start falling apart. And generally when that happens its already too late, and you would be staring at a pretty big damage.

No body knows how many people have been infected, or will be infected in the next multiplication.

Which is why WHO suspects ~1.4 million could get infected by January. By then it would be too late.