[dagw]

Countries care about relative standing compared to its neighbors as much as (if not more than) absolute standings. How is a country that uses the promise of cheap gas and oil as a carrot to keep its neighbors in line going to react when its carrot is taken away and all it has left is a stick?

Furthermore many oil rich countries have shown much more interest in using their wealth to increase the wealth and power of the elite and to oppress and control the population at large. How will they react when they face a very real risk of losing power? How will the oppressed people react when they start seeing the wealth (and the power that comes with it) slipping out of the hands of the elite?