[pjc50]

Nuclear mutual assured destruction put an end to total war.

To see what's next, we should look at what's happening in the present: deniable war, secret war and proxy war. What's going on in Ukraine, for example? There's all these Russian speaking guys in Russian military gear going around, but they're not officially Russian military.

The conflict and associated sanctions are made more complicated by the gas pipeline. Europe can't afford to stop buying gas or half of eastern Europe freezes to death. But Russia can't afford to stop selling gas or they run out of money.

In some ways having half your industrial supply chain in "enemy" territory is a great incentive to avoid war.

Similarly anyone following the conflict in the middle east who can determine who's on "our" side or even accurately enumerate all the parties involved deserves some sort of prize. Is this kind of ultra-local ultra-fragmented conflict likely to spread? Is it likely to acquire cheap hi-tech microdrones or similar?