[Animats]

This is a poor article about an important subject. A more useful way to look at it is to make lists of jobs humans can do, and those which machines can do better. Over time, the second column grows. The first column, not so much.

What's different this time is that computers are so general purpose, and so cheap. If a computer can do it at all, it can do it more cheaply than a human.

[hsuresh]

CGPGrey did a video on this subject recently https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU. But even this video isn't too optimistic about the number of jobs left to humans.

[snowwrestler]

I think this type of analysis is blind to new jobs that neither humans nor robots are doing now.

For example, right now only humans can do complex computer programming, whereas machines do most farming.

But if you went back to the time when quite a few people were employed as farmers, they would have no concept of what computer programming is, or how an economy could value and reward such skills.

They wouldn't know to put it in either column, so they too would feel terror at the idea of machines taking their jobs, because they could not possibly know about the new industries that drive job growth today.

Likewise, I would not bet against the possibility that new industries and jobs will be made possible in the future by automation that is being built today.

I'll hazard one guess: personalized genetic consulting. Genetics are incredibly complex, incredibly powerful, and highly personal. Given the right advances in computing technology, biotech automation, and energy, it could be possible to employ millions of people as a new kind of service provider--one who analyzes your personal genetics and crafts highly personalized plans to optimize your health. Basically, a biological analog to our modern concept of a financial advisor (which is itself a fairly recent development for most people).

edit: clarification

[dllthomas]

There is a contextual difference, at least, between betting on there not being new opportunities available, and trying to avoid relying on new opportunities being consistently available. Even so, an interesting post - upvoted.

[draggnar]

Alvin Toffler wrote a book about this in a much broader context, also called the Third Wave.