[DanielBMarkham]

I've been thinking about this exact thing for many years now. During that time, I've had a few web startups that did not succeed -- even though I worked like the dickens on them.

There are two types of people in the world: people who think that success is due to learning and work and people who think that success is due to luck.

The side-effects of these belief systems are very important.

If you think success is due to hard work and knowledge, you are likely to work hard and keep learning. If, on the other hand, you think it's luck, you are likely to resent those who are luckier than you and to feel like success is a rigged game.

I think you can err too much on either side here. What's the truth? The truth is that you can learn and work and increase your chances from 1 in a million to maybe 1 in a hundred. Perhaps better. Given these odds, some folks try a few times and make it. Some try once and make it. Some try dozens of times and don't make it. Usually looking back, as you point out, the story is about skill and hard work, even though luck probably had a lot (but not all) to do with it.

You can look at this as a reason not to work or try hard, or you can look at this maturely as simply the way life is played. Personally I think the best strategy is to balance learning/working with increasing the frequency of your startup attempts. If you could fail a dozen times in one year, within ten years you're likely to do well. [insert black swan reference here]

[_pius]

There are two types of people in the world: people who think that success is due to learning and work and people who think that success is due to luck.

Or perhaps a third type who simply think that success is due to "being right," no matter how you get there.

[joecode]

The third type is right. Though it can be learn to discover what is right without failing a lot, by working hard. Opportunity is key.

[nostrademons]

"work hard" and "keep learning" should be separated out. There are several people that will do one but not the other. I'd argue too that they have different effects on success: over the long-term, "keep learning" is much more important, but you need a minimum level of both to succeed.

[yters]

Right, if it is luck, then trying more often increases your odds. I think this is often why hard work pays off.

[ahoyhere]

There are a million types of people, and your argument is reductio ab absurdum.

If you want to boil down the whole world to "hard work makes Johnny rich," by all means, go ahead.

But, as I said, many many people have gotten rich without hard work at all.

To deny reality is to deny yourself those "learning experiences" you are talking about.

I never said that hard work can't pay off. I never said that you can't create your own luck. I never said that if you are not lucky so far, give up and resign yourself. You seem to be assuming that because I said "lots of rich people actually didn't work hard," that I am somehow saying those other things -- but I am not.

I'm just a true lover of reality and reason.

Hard work doesn't necessarily pay off, and Caterina's essay made many very good points.