[danieltillett]

Very interesting modelling work here by the CDC. The transmission rate has been estimated using the following three assumptions:

(i) No additional imports of infection.

(ii) Patients maintain the pattern of either going to a hospital early in infectious period, or at home or in a community setting such that there is a reduced risk of disease transmission (includes safe burial when needed).

(iii) Maintenance of effective isolation and barriers-to-infection at hospitals and at home or in a community setting such that there is a reduced risk of disease transmission (includes safe burial when needed).

Both (ii) and (iii) are already wrong so I don’t know how much faith we can put in the modelling accuracy.

[ghshephard]

You can put faith in the modeling accuracy, while at the same time noting that given the current conditions, it does not have great predictive ability.

[danieltillett]

The modelling is actually really good and almost perfectly matches what has actually happened. The problem is they are expecting that things are about to change to fit the three assumptions. If we model the situation using the current conditions on the ground then things look a lot less rosy.