[vobios]

> I can sort of squint my eyes and imagine scenarios where bitcoin, the currency, wins. What I can't see is how bitcoin, the speculative investment, also does well. That these two things are at odds leads to other issues, too, but this is already unnecessarily long.

I don't think those two things are are necessarily at odds. Many people trade well-established currencies for investment purposes. Forex is bigger than futures or equities markets with USD as the most popular currency.

[bobbyhotpockets]

The speculation and trading of bitcoin, if it succeeds as a currency is a given, I think. But right now, some of its most vocal/visible supporters view it as a long term, buy and hold investment, and not just as a hedge.

With equities, no matter how far a stock price declines, profit is still there to be returned to shareholders. Other currencies don't provide the same kind of guarantees, but the backing of governments and inertia might be more valuable. Once people grow concerned that the only thing propping up the long term value of bitcoin is the person next to them believing in it, a quick reversal of sentiment, with ugly consequences, seems likely.