[amalcon]

The problem is that we need to guess at what x and y are for particular levels of confidence. We can't use real-world numbers, because none of the existing developer certification programs grant sufficient confidence.

You can guess one way -- as you clearly do -- and it looks like the up-front developer certification cost dwarfs the software certification cost when amortized over all projects. This might remain true even when multiple developers are considered.

You can also guess another way -- as I do -- and it looks like the up-front and recurring costs to properly certify a developer and maintain that certification would be very large. It could be so large that, even when amortized across many projects, it's still comparable to (or even more costly than) certifying the individual projects.