[Kalium]

If you can always be right about every drug, every time, at every stage, then perhaps quite a bit. Of course, multiple years of trials is still going to be very expensive.

A lot of the costs seem to be linked to the fact that failures are common at every stage. Which is why there is a lot of time, money, and energy being put into reducing failure rates.

There's not an easy "insert disruption here" point.