[emcnicho]

The chances of the stock moving from {$25 - $24 = 4.00%decrease} is much more likely than a move from {$25 - $27.5 = 10% increase}-plain intuition. To be brutally honest, it will most likely hit both of those price targets assuming the stock has been trading between that range and they are within one standard deviation of the historical price records.

The most important part of being a trader is TIMING and the second most important part is being able to make decisions based off of analysis of technical parameters and NOT based off of your emotions.

This type of analysis tells me that you are not comfortable emotionally with losing more than $50 on one trade which I see as a sign that you should be looking into more traditional investment practices.

I would suggest you analyze the opportunity cost for the amount of research, training, and actual trading it will take before you become profitable. Don't forget about taxes!

As a seasoned trader, I can assure you this is the type of analysis that will result in lost money and unimaginable negative emotions. It is too simplistic and lacks both fundamental theory and actual technical analysis.