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by gbrown
4290 days ago
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A basic reproductive number of two can be really really bad, provided it stays that high. If exponential growth holds long enough, it doesn't matter too much what the rate is, so long as it's above one. With that being said it varies a LOT between different countries for exactly the reasons you mention. My initial work shows a lot of heterogeneity: http://grantbrown.github.io/Ebola-2014-Analysis-Archive/Sep_... I agree wholeheartedly with your last three points. Also, from the looks of things the cheapest and most effective time to tackle the disease was months ago. The second cheapest and most effective time to try to stamp it out is as soon as possible. P.S. The ProMed daily digests are some of the best and most comprehensive updates on this situation I've seen: http://www.promedmail.org/ |
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