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by rdtsc
4290 days ago
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How hard is it to predict (if possible at all) the mutation based on the virus type and particular strain (maybe somehow computationally simulate or mutate it) ? In general do mutations follow probability distributions that are known? And then let's say someone wanted to cause mutations that would make it airborne. Could they do it? |
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In some ways, yes. Substitution matrices[0] describe how likely it is for an amino acid to mutate into another amino acid. However, they are generalized descriptors. At the same time, PWMs[1] describe how the probability of any given variant (mutation) is in a specific sequence, and are created by analyzing all known homologs (similar sequences) of that sequence.
However, the number of mutations required for a virus which is incapable of becoming airborne is probably large and definitely unknown. I'm not an expert in virology, but I believe that there are two requirements for a pathogen to become airborne:
A. It must infect and replicate in an area of the body capable of generating aerosols (generally, the respiratory system, like Influenza and Tuberculosis).
B. It must be good at surviving in aerosols- I believe this requires specific environmental adaptations and the right surface proteins and sugars.
I believe that Ebola meets neither requirement (especially the first), and you could see how meeting both would require not just large physical adaptation, but also a complete change in the virus' life cycle in the host.
>And then let's say someone wanted to cause mutations that would make it airborne. Could they do it?
I think in general it would be easier to start with an airborne virus, and make it deadlier. I'm not an expert but this BBC article[2] quotes that a deadly virus has never been observed to change their vector of infection.
0. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Substitution_matrix
1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Position_weight_matrix
2. http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-29168905